R.J. Hottovy: The restaurant industry has been going through a number of changes in the past several years, and it's not just things like delivery, mobile orders and healthier menu options.
Over the past five years, franchise ownership in the quick-service restaurant space has increased from 80% to 96% as companies have sold locations of franchisees, taken on additional debt, and returned the proceeds to shareholders in the form of larger buyback programs and dividend hikes.
Not surprisingly, the restaurant space has become a more popular space for dividend investors. But what is the best bet in the space for dividend investors? Let's look at two names today: McDonald's and Starbucks.
McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant company based on systemwide sales, with US$91 billion in sales at its company-owned and franchise restaurants during 2017, or roughly 4% of the US$2.5 trillion global restaurant industry. Starbucks is the largest specialty coffee chain in the world, with roughly US$31 billion in systemwide sales.
Both names are currently trading at a discount to our fair value estimate, which is US$190 per share for McDonald's and US$64 for Starbucks. Restaurant industry trends could be choppy over the next several months because of the ripple effect from Amazon-Whole Foods and aggressive countermeasures by grocers and as well as restaurant chains.
We believe both of these names offer intriguing dividend plays. McDonald's is expected to pay a dividend of almost US$4.20 per share in 2018, representing a payout ratio of 55% and a yield of 2.5%. Starbucks is expected to pay US$1.25 per share, representing a payout ratio of 40% and a yield of 2.5%.
Which is the better dividend play?
We believe Starbucks has the higher dividend growth potential, with our model forecasting midteens dividend per share
McDonald's on the other hand, will likely see dividends grow at a slower pace, with roughly 10% growth the next few years before fading the to