General Electric was once heralded as "America's most admired company." While we agree there is a lot to admire about the company, we no longer believe it merits a wide economic moat and are downgrading its moat rating to narrow. We are also lowering our fair value estimate to US$15.70 from US$19.
Our moat downgrade stems largely from the drag of GE Capital and recent significant revenue and margin reduction in the large revenue power segment; however, we still believe GE's aviation and healthcare segments boast wide moats. And while the firm this week announced plans to separate healthcare, existing shareholders will still own 80% of this attractive asset after the corporate action. Nevertheless, sub-par returns from GE Capital will mask the earning power of the firm's moatier assets in the short term.
Meanwhile, our fair value estimate reduction ties to the negative contribution from GE Capital as the portfolio de-risks; slightly reduced revenue and margin assumptions; as well as a higher weighted average cost of capital stemming from a higher cost of equity due to greater than anticipated revenue cyclicality.
On the bright side, we consider many actions taken by new CEO John Flannery to be bold steps in the right direction. Flannery has embarked on a turnaround of GE, wisely choosing to restore accountability and focus on three core businesses: aviation, powerand renewable energy.