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Concerns surrounding Research in Motion

Analyst Michael Holt says RIM is experiencing inexcusable shipment declines.

Michael Holt, CFA 20 July, 2012 | 1:00PM Ashley Redmond
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Ashley Redmond: I'm here with Michael Holt, our analyst who covers RIM. Michael, thanks so much for joining us.

Michael Holt: Thanks for having me.

Redmond: So, Michael last week RIM had their annual shareholder meeting and I read some of the reports afterward and some of the coverage, and it seems like some of the investors were frustrated, some even doubtful about the future. I have written down here that on the day of the shareholder meeting, RIM shares fell 4.6% to $7.44 on the TSX. So, what's your take on the meeting and was it what you expected?

Holt: Well, the meeting was really about two things; one was appeasing some angry and frustrated shareholders, and two was to buy some time. RIM is facing a lot of challenges, but really the future of the company hinges on their ability to launch the BlackBerry 10 devices. And so, what we've learned in the last couple of months is that the product is going to be delayed until the first quarter of next year of calendar 2013, and so, there is a lot of frustration from the shareholders who are waiting for these devices to come, so that we can determine if RIM is going to survive as a standalone entity.

Redmond: And just adding fuel to that fire, later that day, on the same day as the shareholder meeting, the verdict came down from the U.S. lawsuit that RIM actually is being ordered to pay $147 million. So, how do you think that will affect the company and talk about bad timing?

Holt: Sure. That lawsuit is not overly material to our valuation in the sense that it's a small percentage of RIM's value, but the bigger concern with that patent dispute is, when you look at the alternatives for RIM. So, if they decide that they're going to try to not make it on their own, but maybe sell the company, a big part of the value is going to be tied up in their patents and the value of these patents is dependent upon what people think they are worth and how strong they look from a legal perspective. So, to have a loss like this weakens the perceived value of those patents.

Redmond: So, overall what's your valuation stance on the company?

Holt: It's $7 per share, that's our fair value estimate and that reflects what we think are going to be some pretty aggressive declines in unit shipments and a deterioration in the user base over the next couple of years, and with that you're going to have contracting operating and gross margins.

Redmond: Okay. So, overall what's your thesis on the company right now?

Holt: Overall, it's really a company whose future hinges upon the successful launch of the BlackBerry 10 devices. Unfortunately, we don't think that they are going to survive as a standalone entity, because although we don't have a problem with the platform that they are using, we think it's going to be too little too late. The really important thing with smartphones is the customers that go into a smartphone platform. So, once somebody becomes an Android user or an iOS user, they become sticky to that platform; so with RIM by waiting so long to get in the market with a platform that would be competitive with those other challengers, they're basically ceding a bunch of market share that they can't afford to cede and by the time they've rolled out a platform, even if it is really strong it could be too little too late.

Redmond: So, basically they are too far behind at this point to catch up with the smartphone market?

Holt: That's what we believe.

Redmond: Okay. Do you think the new COO will make any difference?

Holt: I think the management changes were warranted and needed. There is no silver bullet here though. They need to get these products out the door as soon as possible. Although the new management has a lot of challenges in front of them, what we're really concerned about is the additional delay that we're seeing with the BlackBerry 10 devices. A couple of months ago, we were expecting them to launch this year and now we've learned that they are not going to get out until January at the earliest. So, that's really an inexcusable delay. That may have been out of the control of the current management team but eventually there can't be any more excuses.

Redmond: Great. Thanks so much for your time, Michael.

Holt: Thanks for having me.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar Rating
BlackBerry Ltd3.33 CAD-1.77Rating

About Author

Michael Holt, CFA

Michael Holt, CFA  Michael Holt, CFA, is global head of equity research for Morningstar.

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