When consumers hear the name Disney, it might evoke Mickey Mouse, charming princesses or its renowned theme parks. For investors, though, Disney is an increasingly diversified entertainment conglomerate that has proven to be a perennial money-spinner. Building on its enviable track record, Walt Disney Co. (DIS) continues to make acquisitions and capital investments that should further enhance shareholder returns.
According to Morningstar's CPMS screens, Disney is currently rated a Buy for growth-oriented investors, thanks primarily to its projected 14.4% growth of book value by the end of 2015. Most of the analysts that cover Disney stock have revised their earnings estimates upwards in the past 90 days, making it likely that Disney will achieve -- or exceed -- this 14.4% growth. (CPMS is Morningstar's quantitative equity screening tool for institutional investors and financial advisors; CPMS ratings are independent of stock ratings assigned by Morningstar analysts.)
The market has reacted positively to this growth of earnings and book value by bidding Disney stock up more than 13% thus far in 2015. This positive market recognition is a good indicator that more positive price performance may be in store.
The acquisitions of Pixar Studios and Marvel have generated some of the biggest box-office hits for Disney's studio-entertainment segment and should continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Disney's 2012 purchase of Lucasfilm is likely to provide another lift to this segment with the next installments of Star Wars movies.
Luke Skywalker and friends are due back in theatres this coming December, in what is expected to be the biggest movie of the year and could possibly be the first to gross $3 billion. Regardless of whether the movie breaks records, the 110 million downloads of the 88-second trailer demonstrates that the film is widely anticipated and is likely to be a massive hit.
Meanwhile, Disney's parks and resorts segment has been experiencing strong growth in revenue and operating income for the past several years, with a number of its theme parks setting attendance records. At the original Disneyland in Anaheim, even a measles outbreak could not prevent record attendance last quarter.
Disney is planning to welcome more visitors with recent expansions of its Orlando theme parks, implementation of MyMagic+ (a program that allows guests to book attractions and make purchases using a radio-frequency identification wristband) and its most ambitious and largest non-acquisition investment, Shanghai Disney Resort. The new resort is a US$5.5-billion project set to open in the spring of 2016. It includes a Disneyland resort, two Disney-themed hotels and a downtown Disney shopping centre in one of the world's most populous and fastest growing cities.
However, Disney's true earnings princess is its media-networks segment, which is more profitable than the rest of the company's operations combined. The business segment includes TV channels ABC, Disney Channel and ESPN, all of which have been performing extremely well by repeatedly capturing top spots in various ratings categories.
On a cautionary note, there are considerable risks associated with the ESPN and Disney specialty channels. As Morningstar analyst Neil Macker points out: "Basic pay-television service rates have continued to increase, which could cause consumers to cancel their subscriptions or reduce their level of service." This could generate pressure to lower the prices Disney charges to cable-service providers for its specialty channels. This would have a serious impact on Disney's revenues.
Furthermore, most of Disney's earnings are generated in U.S. dollars, and the recent strength of the greenback may reduce the number of international visitors to its theme parks and reduce the dollar value of revenues generated in other markets. Disney's recent price hikes for visitors to its U.S. theme parks may prove to be a further deterrent to non-U.S. visitors.
Just as a day pass to Disneyworld is looking expensive, so too should Disney stock to value-oriented investors. The stock has a steep price-to-sales value of 3.7, and a price-to-book-value of 4.1. That compares unfavourably with the industry medians of 2.0 and 3.1 respectively. Furthermore, Disney's trailing price-to-earnings value of 23 and price-to-cash-flow value of 16 should convince value investors to shop elsewhere.
Weighed against Disney's high valuations is good news on the management front. Bob Iger's contract as CEO has been extended to 2018 from a previous 2015 expiry date. And it's not only Disney's board that believes Iger is doing an outstanding job. Chief Executive Magazine named him 2014 CEO of the Year.
How long can Disney's pixie dust last? For a long time, it seems, given Disney's ability to continually monetize its franchises. As Morningstar's Macker observes: "Disney uses the success of its new films to not only drive DVD sales but to create new experiences at its parks and resorts as well as to produce new merchandising, television programming and Broadway shows. Each new successful franchise deepens the Disney content library, which will continue to generate value over time." An example is an estimated US$500-plus million in revenue that Frozen toys generated last year, while the film itself has generated more than US$1.2 billion worldwide.
Disney's many unparalleled entertainment properties keep generating new followers while keeping existing customers coming back for more. Its range of business segments provides diversification and reduces volatility. When you wish upon an entertainment star for your growth-oriented portfolio, consider Disney.