We maintain our $4.90 fair value estimate for shares of no-moat BlackBerry after the firm announced the appointment of John Giamatteo as CEO. The firm also announced a change in its strategic review: BlackBerry will no longer pursue an IPO for a portion of its Internet of Things division and will instead keep IoT and cybersecurity under one umbrella, but completely separate them into two completely independent divisions internally. We don’t foresee a meaningful inflection in the business from either move. We’re disappointed about the IPO for the IoT business being scrapped, given it is the superior business of the two in our view and would’ve been attractive for investors. Giamatteo has been leading BlackBerry’s cybersecurity business for 2 years and that business has lagged its market and peer group. We see shares as fairly valued.
We largely expect consistency in BlackBerry’s execution and capital allocation in the future. After longtime CEO and chairman John Chen, who pivoted the company away from mobile phones a decade ago, stepped down in November, we had hoped for a more novel approach to help the company improve its execution. We continue to see the IoT business—centered on QNX software for autonomous vehicles and industrial automation—as the most valuable part of BlackBerry. Cybersecurity has good technology, but poor go-to-market, in our view. We’re pleased to hear both businesses will be run separately with a focus on profitability and cash flow, but don’t see significant execution improvements under consistent leadership.
We believe the internal bifurcation of the two business units may portend to a complete spinoff at some point in the future. We continue to see BlackBerry’s cybersecurity business as a potential acquisition target for a larger endpoint protection provider and believe that the IoT business could garner significant market attention as a stand-alone business benefiting from autonomous driving.