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Trading at a 20% Discount, This Misunderstood US Stock Is a Buy

We think market sentiment on this quality stock is too negative.

Brian Colello, CPA 14 January, 2025 | 10:32AM
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Advanced Micro Devices AMD had a tough 2024: The stock finished the year down 18%. While AMD is unlikely to usurp Nvidia NVDA as the leader in AI chips, being second best in a lucrative market that’s expected to grow to $500 billion by 2028 isn’t too shabby. We think the shares of this narrow-moat semiconductor giant look attractive, trading 20% below our fair value estimate. AMD appears on Morningstar’s list of the Best AI Stocks to Buy Now and is also among Morningstar chief US market strategist Dave Sekera’s 3 Stocks to Buy if the Economy Stalls—and 3 Stocks to Buy if It Doesn’t.

Advanced Micro Devices has a wealth of digital semiconductor expertise and is well positioned to prosper from favorable trends in data centers and artificial intelligence. We consider AMD to be one of two notable companies in graphics processing units, which are especially well suited for AI. It may play second fiddle to Nvidia in AI GPUs, but its expertise should become increasingly valuable—and lucrative—in the years ahead. AMD has benefited from its outsourced manufacturing model, as its tight relationship with industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor TSM enabled it to grab a technological lead when rival Intel INTC stumbled with its internal manufacturing road map. We think AMD’s data center business should boom over the next few years. Its server central processing units should be in high demand, as should its GPUs suited for AI workloads.

Key Morningstar Metrics for AMD

Fair Value Estimate: $160
Star Rating: 4 Stars
Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Uncertainty Rating: High

Economic Moat Rating

We think AMD has a narrow economic moat based on intangible assets around a variety of chip designs. We think it is more likely than not that the company will generate excess returns on capital over the next 10 years, if not longer. AMD is perhaps best known for its CPUs for PC desktops and notebooks within its client business segment. We think that AMD has a moat in this business, not only because of chip design expertise honed over decades, but also because it is one of two prominent firms to hold an x86 instruction set architecture license. In server CPUs within AMD’s data center segment, we see similar dynamics. Although Nvidia is clearly dominant in AI GPUs today, we think leading cloud vendors will continue to seek second sources. We view AMD’s embedded business as moaty, but we generally do not see AMD’s discrete GPU business for gaming nor its semicustom chip business for gaming consoles as having advantages.

Read more about AMD’s moat rating.

Fair Value Estimate for AMD Stock

Our $160 fair value estimate implies a 2025 adjusted price/earnings ratio of 28 times and a 2% free cash flow yield. We expect AMD to achieve a top-line compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2028. We model revenue to rise 13% in 2024 and accelerate from there, growing 22% on average from 2025 to 2028 as AMD’s data center GPU business takes off in AI applications. Over the next five years, we model AMD’s data center revenue growing at a 41% CAGR; in client revenue, we model a 16% CAGR. As AMD recovers in PCs and grows in data center chips, adjusted gross margin should rebound to 53% in 2024 and reach management’s long-term target of 57% as soon as 2028. Data center growth should lead to operating margin expansion to 24% in 2024 and 38% in 2028, ahead of management’s long-term target of 35%.

Read more about AMD’s fair value estimate.

Risk and Uncertainty

Even if AMD’s GPU designs are on par with (or better than) Nvidia’s, we view the associated software tools as a hurdle where AMD is behind today and will need to catch up to the clear leader. Further, we expect leading hyperscale cloud computing customers to continue to invest in AI processors. If Intel can regain its manufacturing lead, AMD will face a more formidable x86 foe in PCs, and they both could face threats from new entrants. The PC market remains cyclical. AMD’s gaming business often faces boom-or-bust cycles along with PC demand and, more recently, the sharp rises and falls of cryptocurrency mining. AMD also has customer concentration in its semicustom business.

Read more about AMD’s risk and uncertainty.

AMD Bulls Say

AMD has gained market share in PCs as Intel’s manufacturing prowess has hit several road bumps in recent years.
A partnership with chip manufacturing leader TSMC, plus the adoption of a chiplet manufacturing strategy, has allowed AMD to come to market with more-formidable products and greater flexibility to bring new products to market quickly.
AI offers a massive opportunity to GPU makers. While AMD lags industry leader Nvidia, we see plenty of room in the AI market for GPU alternatives like AMD’s.

AMD Bears Say

Despite AMD’s recent share gains, Intel remains the industry leader in PCs and might recapture the vast majority of the market if it can deliver leading manufacturing capabilities once again.
AMD will need to improve its software capabilities to make a dent in Nvidia’s AI dominance, as Nvidia is strong in not only GPUs but associated AI software tools.
AMD’s gaming semicustom chip business is beholden to the design cycles and launches of new gaming consoles, and it might be a couple of more years until next-generation consoles arrive.

This article was compiled by Susan Dziubinski and Sylvia Hauser. Data as of Jan. 8, 2025.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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About Author

Brian Colello, CPA

Brian Colello, CPA  is director of technology, media, and telecom equity research for Morningstar.

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