Apple Earnings: iPhone Slowdown is Playing Out

We see Apple’s valuation implying overly rosy expectations for long-term growth.

William Kerwin 31 January, 2025 | 11:58AM
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Key Morningstar Metrics for Apple


What We Thought of Apple’s Earnings

Apple’s AAPL December-quarter revenue rose by 4% year over year to $124.3 billion. IPhone revenue declined 1% year over year to $69.1 billion, and services revenue rose 14% year over year to $26.3 billion. March-quarter revenue guidance calls for low to mid-single-digit year-over-year growth.

Why it matters: The firm’s tepid results and guidance align with our expectations for a soft iPhone growth cycle over the next two years, with the integration of generative artificial intelligence features only modestly increasing device sales.

  • Apple Intelligence doesn’t appear to be lifting iPhone 16 unit sales in a material way. We point to a delayed and protracted rollout of features as reasons for a mild initial impact. In our view, the most attractive feature set of Apple Intelligence is still not released.
  • China remained a growth headwind, with revenue declining for the sixth straight quarter. China is a key piece of our thesis for slowing long-term iPhone growth, with Apple losing share to revitalized domestic competitors.

The bottom line: We maintain our $200 fair value estimate for wide-moat Apple. We believe our long-term thesis for slowing iPhone growth is bearing out. Despite our favorable view of the company and its fundamentals, we see Apple’s valuation implying overly rosy expectations for long-term growth.

IPhone revenue has grown at a 7% average annual rate in the past 10 years, but we believe through-cycle iPhone revenue growth is slowing and forecast 5% average annual growth through fiscal 2029. Core to our thesis are China headwinds and a mature smartphone market.

  • Shares rose 3% after-hours, which we see as an overreaction to March-quarter revenue guidance. In our view, low to mid-single-digit year-over-year growth represents a mild iPhone cycle and fails to justify the current valuation Apple holds today.

Apple iPhone: 2025 Growth Will Slow, 2026 Growth Will Increase

We’ve lowered our expectations for fiscal 2025 iPhone unit sales and revenue as we incorporate March-quarter guidance. We continue to expect stronger iPhone revenue growth in fiscal 2026, with more generative AI features released and more time under consumers’ belts to integrate AI features into their daily tasks. Our forecast is a far cry from a “supercycle,” however, with peak iPhone revenue growth of 7% in fiscal 2026.

We expect long-term iPhone revenue to grow in the mid-single digits, which we see as positive. Nevertheless, we believe investors would have to assume long-term iPhone revenue growth in the high-single digits, as well as positive contributions from generative AI to other device sales, to justify Apple’s current share price.

Services growth and profitability remain attractive pieces of Apple’s story. We believe Apple’s continued double-digit year-over-year growth from its services business is a shining example of Apple’s software prowess and incredibly sticky ecosystem. We also see gross margin expansion of 100 basis points year over year to 46.9% showing the firm’s premium pricing power, vertical hardware integration, and rising mix of services. We expect double-digit services revenue growth and gross margin expansion to continue into the medium term.

Apple Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Source: Morningstar Direct.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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William Kerwin  is an equity analyst for technology at Morningstar

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