Rogers Earnings: Competition Persists as Immigration Slows

We’ve reduced our fair value estimate of Rogers stock.

Samuel Siampaus 31 January, 2025 | 4:42PM
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Rogers telecommunication company logo in rainbow colors displayed on a building during Pride Month.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Rogers Communications


What We Thought of Rogers Communications’ Earnings

Rogers Communications’ RCI.B fourth-quarter earnings highlighted Canada’s competitive wireless and wireline service market. However, the country’s stricter immigration policy weighed on the firm’s wireless results in the fourth quarter, and we expect this to continue in the coming years. We’ve reduced our fair value estimate to C$66 per share. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged.

Rogers added only 69,000 net postpaid customers in the fourth quarter (the lightest quarter in 2024), as Canada’s recent immigration curbs hindered an already competitive market. Customer churn was 1.5%, and average revenue per user was flat, echoing the intense competition that challenged Canada’s wireless landscape. We’ve reduced our outlook for Canada’s wireless customer growth, lowering our customer addition forecast for Rogers. Our updated forecast accounts for an average of 390,000 net customer additions through 2029, compared with our previous estimate of a 470,000 average.

Rogers’ cable business was a bright spot in the quarter. Revenue improved by less than 1% year over year. Although marginal, it was the first growth seen that year. ARPU was down over 1% compared with last year, but we were encouraged by Rogers’ 26,000 net internet additions in the quarter. The firm continues to invest in its market expansion, which we expect to drive increased customer additions through our forecast.

Rogers continues to deliver on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 9% in the quarter, driving a 260-basis-point margin improvement to 46%. We expect adjusted EBITDA growth throughout our forecast but expect the rate to slow relative to the last few years. We think Rogers has recognized most of its synergies from Shaw, and a competitive environment in both wireless and wireline is limiting pricing growth. We forecast an adjusted EBITDA margin of 47.4% in 2029, up slightly from 46.7% in 2024.


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Samuel Siampaus  is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

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