Bombardier: US Tariffs Could Dent or Delay More Than 60% of Sales, but We Doubt They’re Permanent

We have not altered our forecast or fair value estimate for Bombardier stock.

Nicolas Owens 3 February, 2025 | 10:02PM
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The Trump administration has ordered 25% tariffs on US imports from Canada. Of Bombardier’s BBD.A USD 8 billion in 2023 revenue, USD 5 billion came from US-based customers, putting the majority at some risk of delay or diminishment.

Big picture: As we wrote in November, tariffs on imports featured prominently in the 2024 Republican Party platform, framed as a policy tool to promote fair and reciprocal trade. While we can’t rule out a protracted trade war, we view the tariffs as a negotiating tactic.

  • Of the approximately 140 business jets Bombardier delivered in 2023, 112 were powered by engines manufactured by Honeywell in Arizona or GE Aerospace in Indiana. These engines represent more than one-third of the value of the jet in some cases, potentially complicating the effects of the tariffs.
  • Both the US Army and Air Force are purchasing Bombardier jets modified for electronic surveillance and battlefield communications. They may seek an exception to paying the 25% tariff, or its removal.

The bottom line: We have not altered our forecast or fair value estimate of C$101 per share. We will monitor US-Canadian trade policy developments with an eye on how quickly negotiations to reduce tariffs progress.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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About Author

Nicolas Owens  is an industrials equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers the aerospace and defense sector, including Boeing, Airbus, and major North American commercial airlines and defense contractors.

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