Key Morningstar Metrics for Royal Bank of Canada
- Fair Value Estimate: C$157.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
What We Thought of Royal Bank of Canada’s Earnings
Royal Bank of Canada RY reported slightly disappointing fiscal first-quarter results, as credit costs were a headwind. Net revenue increased 24% from a year ago to C$16.7 billion, driven by strong growth in net interest income, trading income, and asset-based fees. Adjusted net income increased 29% from a year ago to C$5.3 billion.
As we incorporate the results and the bank’s updated 2025 outlook, we expect to increase our 2025 forecasts for net interest income growth and trading income growth, but we also expect higher expense growth, which will largely offset the impact of higher net revenue. As such, we do not expect a material change in our fair value estimate of C$157 per share. We view the stock as about fairly valued.
Provisioning expenses increased to C$1.05 billion from C$840 million a quarter ago. The increase was mostly driven by provisioning on impaired loans, which rose C$345 million sequentially to C$985 million. One large account in the utilities sector drove most of the increase in impaired provisioning. Commercial loan provisioning was also higher.
Gross impaired loans rose to 0.78% of total loans from 0.59% last quarter. Net formations increased by C$1.7 billion from C$1.3 billion a quarter ago, again mostly driven by the large utility borrower. We had already expected credit costs to be a headwind for the bank in the near term, but we also believe the company should be able to manage it well, given its strong common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.2%.
NII increased 26% from last year to C$7.5 billion, driven by the acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada and core balance sheet growth. Average earning assets increased 10% from last year. Net interest margin decreased 8 basis points from last quarter to 1.60% but was 19 basis points higher than in the year-ago period. Management increased its 2025 adjusted NII guidance to “up high single digits to low double digits” from “mid to high single digits.”
Royal Bank of Canada Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 12:48 PM EST. Data as of Feb. 27, 2025.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.