CIBC Earnings: Better Provisioning and a Strong Start to 2025

We continue to view CIBC stock as slightly overvalued.

Maoyuan Chen 27 February, 2025 | 9:05PM
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Close-up of CIBC sign on the building. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce


What We Thought of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s Earnings

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM reported decent fiscal first-quarter earnings that were largely in line with our expectations, with strong trading results and net interest income growth helping lift total revenue. Adjusted net income increased by 23% from a year ago to C$2.2 billion. Given that first-quarter results and management’s outlook all largely align with our previous views of CIBC, we maintain our current fair value estimate of C$77 per share, and we view the stock as slightly overvalued.

Similarly to the last quarter, credit costs were better than some of its peers, as CIBC’s provisioning expense decreased 2% year over year but increased 37% from a quarter ago to C$573 million. The year-over-year decrease in provisioning was helped by an elevated base in the first quarter of the prior year. The sequential increase in provisioning was mostly driven by a C$125 million increase in performing loan provisioning, which is often driven by changes in projections or economic assumptions.

Provisioning on impaired loans increased 7% sequentially to C$446 million, mostly driven by US office commercial real estate loans and Canadian mortgages. The bank’s Canadian mortgage 90-plus day delinquency ratio continued to increase and is worth monitoring, given CIBC’s relatively large exposure here.

Total net write-offs decreased 15% sequentially to C$352 million. Gross impaired loans increased 12% from a quarter ago and net formations went up 8% sequentially. We expect credit costs to remain elevated in the near term. That said, the bank has a strong balance sheet with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.5%.

Fee revenue increased 17% from a year ago to C$3.5 billion, mostly driven by the 37% increase in trading income. We view first-quarter trading results at a seasonally high level, and we caution investors not to read too much from these results.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 03:12 PM EST. Data as of Feb. 27, 2025.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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Maoyuan Chen  is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

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