New 25% tariffs on all US imports from Canada and Mexico began on March 4, nominally tied to measures by these two nations and China to prevent fentanyl importation and illegal immigration into the United States.
Big picture: It is unclear whether the tariffs will last a few days, months, or the rest of President Donald Trump’s term. Therefore, we are not yet modeling a permanent shift in demand for Bombardier’s products or its manufacturing costs for 2025-28.
- It also remains unclear how much of the tariffs might be absorbed by the meaningful portion of US content in the aircraft, including wing components and engines. Not to mention the effects Canadian countermeasures or escalation in trade policy may have.
- Bombardier’s shares have traded down 22% since Trump’s election, largely due to investor concern and uncertainty about tariffs.
The bottom line: As mentioned in our Feb. 3 note, we don’t think tariffs will stay in place long. We’ve modeled a scenario in which Bombardier’s US customers delay delivery by up to six months to avoid paying tariffs, which would result in a C$6 reduction to our C$113 fair value estimate.
- Even in a more extreme scenario (and in our view, a highly improbable one) in which tariffs on Bombardier’s jets remain in place for the long term, we do not believe the dent in Bombardier’s net sales would exceed 10%. This would have a proportional effect on our fair value estimate.
- We continue to believe that while investors' concerns are quite reasonable, the share price movement to 30% below our C$113 fair value estimate is overdone, with the shares approaching 5-star territory below C$68 per share.
Bombardier Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 4:15 PM ET. Data as of March 04, 2025.
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