Constellation Brands Inc Class A STZ

Morningstar Rating
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  • Last Close
  • Sector
  • Industry
  • Investment Style
    Mid Core
  • Market Cap
  • Forward Div Yield
    1.70%
  • Trailing Div Yield
  • Price/Sales
    4.27
  • Price/Book
    5.48
  • Beta (5-Year)
    0.79
  • Consensus Forward P/E
    15.48
  • Trailing 12-mo Rev

Morningstar's Analysis

Valuation Jan 31, 2025
Currency in USD
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Beverage Industry: Tariffs Affect Beverage Imports and Packaging, but Policy Durability Uncertain
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Dan Su, CFA
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Dan Su, CFA Updated Apr 03, 2025

We are maintaining our fair value estimates for the beverage firms we cover following the US tariff announcements April 2. While tariffs for an extended period will pressure sales and margins, we think it’s possible that they could be rescinded as they tend to be used as a negotiating tactic. We see investment opportunities in Brown-Forman and Constellation Brands, which trade at respective 36% and 34% discounts to our $52 and $274 fair value estimates.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Dan Su, CFA Updated Jan 31, 2025

We award a wide moat rating to Constellation Brands on the basis of the strong brand equity and tight distributor relations that the company’s top-selling Mexican beer portfolio enjoys, as well as some scale-based cost advantages in procurement and advertising.

Constellation has earned its perch as the top player (with a 60%-plus volume share) in

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)

Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

Morningstar Equity Research Methodology

Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
46.04 8.69 50.37 -28.44 19.85 17.02 15.96 -6.40 5.81 -6.96 -17.42
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 -8.35

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