Ingredion Inc INGR

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Valuation Feb 04, 2025
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We See Limited Tariff Impact to Ingredients Producers
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Seth Goldstein, CFA
Strategist
Analyst Note | by Seth Goldstein, CFA Updated Apr 03, 2025

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that featured a minimum 10% tariff on all US imports, with only limited exceptions, and higher rates for select countries. Ingredient producer shares were mixed on the news, either up or down less than the broader market selloff.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Seth Goldstein, CFA Updated Feb 04, 2025

Ingredion manufactures starches and sweeteners by wet milling and processing corn and other starch-based raw materials. The company steeps these raw materials in a water-based solution before separating the ingredients from co-products (animal feed and corn oil). Starches are the largest category, generating around 45% of revenue, followed by sweet

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)

Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

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Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
15.02 32.37 13.64 -32.87 4.44 -12.63 26.12 4.15 13.87 28.92 0.33
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 -8.35

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