No-moat PVH closed fiscal 2024 with sales and profitability that slightly exceeded our expectations. The firm also announced a $500 million accelerated share repurchase plan after a similar level of repurchases in 2024. On the downside, its guidance for 2025 was uninspiring as the firm faces uneven consumer demand and delays in new Calvin Klein merchandise. Indeed, as we had long anticipated, PVH is going to fall far short of its original 2025 PVH+ targets ($12.5 billion in sales, 15% operating margin). We expect to cut our $145 fair value estimate by a low-single-digit rate given the outlook, but shares remain very attractive. After having fallen nearly 40% year to date, shares rallied by a midteens percentage on April 1 on the earnings report and buyback plan.
Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)
Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
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