Rayonier Inc RYN

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Valuation Feb 07, 2025
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Rayonier: Land Dispositions Reach Almost $1.5 Billion With New Zealand Joint Venture Sale
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Spencer Liberman
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Spencer Liberman Updated Mar 11, 2025

On March 10, Rayonier announced it had reached an agreement to sell its 77% stake in its New Zealand joint venture for $710 million. The New Zealand JV manages approximately 287,000 acres of timberland and has long been a part of the company's portfolio. This announcement does not come as a surprise though, as management noted it was exploring strategic opportunities for the JV last year. The funds from this sale will be used to reduce the company's leverage and fund the next special dividend, which management expects to be between $1.00 and $1.40 per share. Additionally, management expects this deal to close sometime in 2025, pending regulatory approvals. We view this deal as value-neutral, and as such, we maintain our $32 per share fair value estimate.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Spencer Liberman Updated Mar 11, 2025

Rayonier is the second-largest timberland real estate investment trust in North America, managing about 1.75 million acres in the southern United States, 300,000 acres in the Pacific Northwest, and 300,000 acres in New Zealand. As a REIT, Rayonier distributes its REIT income to shareholders without having to pay corporate level incomes taxes. Cash

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

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Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
-16.96 24.32 22.67 -9.11 22.21 -7.02 41.05 -15.55 5.43 -13.08 4.15
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 -8.35
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