We are downgrading our moat rating for Skyworks Solutions to none from narrow, based on our review of the company's looming radio frequency chip share loss within Apple's upcoming iPhone 17 series, along with our pessimism around potentially lucrative Android-based smartphone opportunities that will help Skyworks recover from such share loss. We are no longer confident that Skyworks will generate excess returns on capital over the next decade. We view a strong recovery of RF content at Apple as possible, but it is no longer our base-case assumption. We maintain our $70 fair value estimate, which we established on Feb. 5 upon the news of the socket loss at Apple, and our various model updates associated with our moat downgrade are relatively immaterial. We view shares as fairly valued.
Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)
Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.