AtkinsRéalis ended 2024 on a solid note, posting a 21% year-over-year increase in segment adjusted EBIT in the services business in the fourth quarter. We’ve raised our fair value estimate to CAD 74 per share from CAD 65, driven by our more optimistic near-term revenue growth and operating margin projections. We’ve also lowered our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to Medium from High as the company nears the completion of its remaining lump-sum turnkey projects.
Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)
Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.