Atkinsrealis Group Inc ATRL

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Valuation Mar 13, 2025
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AtkinsRéalis Earnings: Exiting Highway 407 as Management Focuses on Nuclear and Engineering Services
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Krzysztof Smalec, CFA
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Krzysztof Smalec, CFA Updated Mar 13, 2025

AtkinsRéalis ended 2024 on a solid note, posting a 21% year-over-year increase in segment adjusted EBIT in the services business in the fourth quarter. We’ve raised our fair value estimate to CAD 74 per share from CAD 65, driven by our more optimistic near-term revenue growth and operating margin projections. We’ve also lowered our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to Medium from High as the company nears the completion of its remaining lump-sum turnkey projects.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Krzysztof Smalec, CFA Updated Mar 13, 2025

Since Ian Edwards took the helm as president and CEO in 2019, AtkinsRéalis has transformed and significantly derisked its portfolio. The company has ceased bidding on lump-sum turnkey projects and divested its oil and gas business. We view the new strategic direction favorably, as cost overruns on LSTK projects led to negative cash flows in recent

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

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Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
-4.94 43.07 0.61 -17.50 -34.26 -27.18 42.61 -22.55 79.13 78.95 -7.61
-8.66 21.52 9.20 -9.01 22.58 5.79 24.72 -5.55 12.22 23.07 3.42

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