No-moat MongoDB reported solid fourth-quarter results, exceeding our estimates on the top and bottom line, but the fiscal 2026 outlook was well below expectations. The weak outlook was much lower than FactSet consensus forecasts and shares fell 16% in after-hours trading. The company guided for a fiscal 2026 growth of only 13%, while consensus was looking for growth of closer to 17%, and our expectations were even higher than that at 20%. The soft outlook incorporated weaker non-Atlas revenue expectations due to fewer multiyear license renewals combined with increased investments in artificial intelligence and marketing initiatives. It is a worrying sign that the company is seeing material limitations in growth in what was 30% of revenue in the most recent year. Further, the additional investments in marketing, combined with a deceleration in growth in Atlas revenue, which we estimate will likely only be up 21% to 22% in fiscal year 2026 compared with growth of 27% in the previous year, are all worrying signs. As such, we factor in slower growth than previously expected, and after adjusting our estimates, we arrive at a fair value estimate of $222, down from $290 previously, and we view shares as fairly valued after the after-hours drop.
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