MongoDB Inc Class A MDB

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Market Closed
$154.39
8.95 | 5.48%
USD | NASDAQ | Last close prices updated as of Apr 04, 2025, 4:00 PM EST | BATS BZX Real-Time Price
  • Last Close
    154
  • Sector
    Technology
  • Industry
    Software - Infrastructure
  • Investment Style
    Mid Growth
  • Market Cap
    12.5346 Bil
  • Forward Div Yield
  • Trailing Div Yield
  • Price/Sales
    12.98
  • Price/Book
    17.62
  • Beta (5-Year)
    1.49
  • Consensus Forward P/E
    95.24
  • Trailing 12-mo Rev
    2.01

Morningstar's Analysis

Valuation Mar 06, 2025
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MongoDB Earnings: Weak Fiscal 2026 Outlook Clouds Strong 2025 Results
Author Photo
Eric Compton, CFA
Director
Analyst Note | by Eric Compton, CFA Updated Mar 06, 2025

No-moat MongoDB reported solid fourth-quarter results, exceeding our estimates on the top and bottom line, but the fiscal 2026 outlook was well below expectations. The weak outlook was much lower than FactSet consensus forecasts and shares fell 16% in after-hours trading. The company guided for a fiscal 2026 growth of only 13%, while consensus was looking for growth of closer to 17%, and our expectations were even higher than that at 20%. The soft outlook incorporated weaker non-Atlas revenue expectations due to fewer multiyear license renewals combined with increased investments in artificial intelligence and marketing initiatives. It is a worrying sign that the company is seeing material limitations in growth in what was 30% of revenue in the most recent year. Further, the additional investments in marketing, combined with a deceleration in growth in Atlas revenue, which we estimate will likely only be up 21% to 22% in fiscal year 2026 compared with growth of 27% in the previous year, are all worrying signs. As such, we factor in slower growth than previously expected, and after adjusting our estimates, we arrive at a fair value estimate of $222, down from $290 previously, and we view shares as fairly valued after the after-hours drop.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Eric Compton, CFA Updated Mar 06, 2025

MongoDB is a document-based database, benefiting from growth in the cloud and the need to consume and use data variants that go beyond typical relational database setups. As technologies like the internet and the cloud are proliferating, new data needs have arisen, and MongoDB has emerged to meet some of those use cases. MongoDB is generally viewed

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

Morningstar Equity Research Methodology

Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
182.14 57.17 172.81 47.43 -62.81 107.71 -43.06 -33.68
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 -13.76
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